Solar LCOE 2024: IRENA vs Lazard vs BNEF
Five major sources report solar PV costs — and none of them agree. Here's what each says, and why the numbers diverge.
Key takeaway
Utility-scale solar PV LCOE in 2024 ranges from $0.024 to $0.096/kWh depending on the source. The global weighted average is $0.041–0.049/kWh. The spread is driven by financing assumptions, geographic scope, and system boundary definitions — not by disagreement about the technology itself.
Source comparison
| Source | LCOE | Year | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| IRENA RPGC 2024 | 0.049 USD/kWh | 2023 | 92% |
| Lazard LCOE 16.0 | 0.024–0.096 USD/kWh | 2024 | 88% |
| BNEF NEO 2024 | 0.041 USD/kWh | 2024 | 85% |
| EIA AEO 2024 | 0.033 USD/kWh | 2024 | 80% |
| NREL ATB 2024 | 0.028 USD/kWh | 2024 | 90% |
Global weighted average, utility-scale
US, unsubsidized, utility-scale
Global benchmark, new-build
US, plants entering service 2029
US, moderate scenario, Class 5
Why the numbers disagree
Financing assumptions
IRENA uses a real WACC of 7.5% for OECD, 10% for non-OECD. Lazard assumes a 60/40 debt-equity structure with 8% cost of equity. NREL uses a fixed charge rate. These alone can shift LCOE by 15-25%.
System boundary
NREL and EIA include interconnection costs in some scenarios. IRENA excludes grid costs. Lazard shows "unsubsidized" but includes ITC/PTC-eligible configurations separately. The boundary definition matters more than the model.
Geography and irradiance
IRENA reports a global capacity-weighted average (which blends high-irradiance markets like India and the Middle East with lower-irradiance Europe). Lazard and EIA focus on the US. BNEF uses a global reference plant. Higher irradiance = lower LCOE.
Reference year and vintage
IRENA's 2024 report covers projects commissioned through 2023. Lazard and BNEF model costs for new projects in 2024. EIA models plants entering service in 2029. Different vintage = different module prices and installation costs.
Module price assumptions
Module prices fell ~50% in 2023 due to Chinese overcapacity. Reports published early in the year may use higher module price assumptions than those published later. This single variable can swing LCOE by 20-30%.
Sources
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